Skagit County Economic Trends and Forecast
Skagit County is situated west of the Cascade Mountains in the northwestern part of western Washington State. It is bordered by Whatcom County to the north, Snohomish County to the south, Chelan and Okanogan counties to the east and Puget Sound, San Juan County and Island County, to the west. Skagit County is located approximately 60 miles north of Seattle and 80 miles south of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The largest city and the county seat is Mount Vernon. Skagit County also includes some of the San Juan Islands, such as Cypress, Guemes and several smaller islands.
Between 2000 and 2022, Skagit County’s population increased by an estimated 28 percent from 102,979 to 130,696. Out of 39 counties it ranks as the 12th largest county in population in Washington State. Skagit County has been experiencing a nominal transition in regional growth and development patterns from predominantly rural and agricultural land uses, to more intense residential and commercial uses.
Historically, some of the population movement to Skagit County has been fueled by escalating home prices, and a significant increase in the cost of living experienced in King and Snohomish Counties to the south. Relatively high home prices in the Central Puget Sound region forced some families northward to seek more affordable housing in areas such as Mount Vernon, Burlington and Sedro Woolley. Mount Vernon is the largest city within Skagit County with an estimated population of 36,263 in 2023 which represents an increase from 31,800 or 14 percent from 2010.
Over the past several decades, Skagit County has made a moderate transition from a narrow, agricultural and industrial base to a more diversified economy. The recent diversification of new industries, including seafood processing, manufacturing industries, port facility expansion and infrastructure improvements have greatly added to the county’s economic strength. It is primarily the service related jobs and the emergence of new industries which have improved the economic outlook for the county.
Farming and agriculture related industries have always been a substantial portion of the county’s economy. There are approximately 100,000 acres of agricultural land located throughout the county. Nearly half of the agricultural industry is devoted to dairy producers. Skagit County is ranked fourth in the state in dollar value of milk sold. Livestock and poultry account for approximately 15 percent of the gross dollars to growers, and income from commercial crops total more than $50 million.
Forestry in Skagit County has experienced a dramatic decline in employment of nearly 30 percent over the past several decades. Major factors contributing to the decline in forest products include the setting aside of forest land for the protection of endangered species, the ban on some types of log exporting and legal restrictions placed on harvesting timber. To reverse the decline in raw timber production the county’s forest industries are focusing on value added wood products, such as furniture, particle board, log homes and wood fuel pellets.
Skagit County has also experienced a substantial increase in its retail economy over the past 20 years. Much of it can be attributed to the Cascade Mall and Pacific Edge Outlet Center in Burlington along with the addition of several big box retail centers including Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Lowes, Costco and others. Retail sales within the county increased from by 9.1 percent to $705 million in the final quarter of 2016 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. However, partially due to the Covid-19 pandemic the Cascade Mall recently closed the interior mall with stores having exterior entrances allowed to remain open.
Skagit County is well served by several modes of transportation including highways, trucking companies, rail service, deepwater ports and air ports. Interstate 5 is the major highway system traveling through Skagit County. Interstate 5 runs from Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, (Highway 99 in Canada) south to the Mexican border with California. The interstate runs through the cities of Mount Vernon and Burlington which links them to Bellingham to the north and Everett, Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, Portland and other cities to the south. The primary east-west highway is State Route 20, also known as the North Cascades Highway. It offers direct access to most of the county’s eastern cities and Anacortes and Whidbey Island to the west.
The major trucking companies serving the Skagit County region include Skagit Valley Trucking, Consolidated Freightways and Oak Harbor Freight Lines. Burlington Northern Railroad and Amtrak also serve the county. Downtown Mount Vernon added a new Amtrak depot several years ago.
The Port of Anacortes, located on Puget Sound, offers two deep water berths for shipping and barge service. This terminal accommodates ocean going ships as well as tugs and barges. The Skagit County Regional Airport is located in Burlington, and provides two runways of more than 5,000 feet each. The Anacortes Airport is operated by the Port of Anacortes and has a 3,000 foot runway.
Due to the upward pressures on property values in Snohomish and King Counties during the 1990’s through the mid 2000’s Skagit County became a viable residential alternative for those seeking more affordable housing that are willing to commute to employment centers located sometimes 60 miles or more, to the south. Historically, unincorporated Skagit County has experienced the greatest number of residential building permits issued during the past. This is predominantly due to the relatively low percentage of unincorporated versus incorporated land areas. Mount Vernon has historically been the most active incorporated city for construction of new single-family residences, followed by Anacortes, Sedro Woolley and Burlington. The number of building permits is directly related to the population base of each incorporated city.
Summary
Skagit County continues to experience moderate increases in population due to its quality of life and relatively low cost of living, when compared to other counties in the greater Puget Sound region. An expanding population base typically creates demand for all types of real estate. Long term economic trends also appear to be positive within the region.